Super Bowl Showdown: Predicting Super Bowl 58
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The stage is set for Super Bowl LVIII. The San Francisco 49ers will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Las Vegas.
According to ESPN, San Francisco is currently the favorite to win, but with Patrick Mahomes leading the Chiefs, you never know. Mahomes is now in his fourth Super Bowl in six years already cementing himself in NFL history. Unlike Mahomes, the somewhat inexperienced Iowa State product Brock Purdy leads the San Francisco offense. Purdy was the final pick in the 2022 draft and has had an insane rise to becoming the starting quarterback in a Superbowl in his second NFL season.
Purdy was the NFL MVP favorite for a few weeks until the game against the Baltimore Ravens, where Purdy threw four interceptions making Lamar Jackson the MVP favorite. Unlike Jackson, Purdy was able to lead his team through the playoffs and to the Super Bowl.
For this article, I will analyze how the teams compare to each other position by position and give my predictions on which team will become victorious and why.
The Quarterback position favors the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes. Even though Purdy has had a better statistical season, no quarterback has been consistently better than Mahomes has been over the past six seasons. The main factor that separates Mahomes from Purdy is the experience. Mahomes is now playing in his fourth Superbowl meaning he is a veteran in the field, while Purdy in only his second season has no Super Bowl thus far.
Isaiah Pacheco has been solid for Kansas City all season, but he comes nowhere near San Francisco Christan McCaffery. McCaffery is having the best season of his career and has been one of the biggest parts of the Niners’ success. McCaffery has over 2,000 all-purpose yards this season making him the second MVP candidate on the San Francisco roster.
San Francisco also has the better-receiving core with players such as Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings. Aiyuk had over 1,3000 receiving yards this season with Samuel adding on another near 900 to the lethal Niners offense. The Kansas City receiving core has had its problems this season but when it’s mattered the most, they have been able to make it work. With Rashee Rice, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Justin Watson the Chiefs have found a way to win games without a superstar wide receiver. This is backed further by the Chiefs Super Bowl win last season when JuJu Smith-Schuster was the only Chiefs receiver with over fifty yards that is not named Travis Kelce.
The most even matchup of the teams is in the Tight End position. The Chiefs star Travis Kelce has been regarded as the best Tight End for a long time now but in my opinion, the best overall Tight End is San Francisco’s own George Kittle. Tight Ends are meant to block and receive, but with Kelce you don’t get the blocking element that Kittle provides. Kittle is the best blocking Tight End in the league and the second-best receiver. This means he is the overall best player in his position. Once again giving the edge to the Niners.
The most important part of this game comes down to which defense will be able to get more stops and create more turnovers. Throughout the season, the Chiefs were ranked second overall and the Niners ranked eighth. The Niners had given up thirteen fewer touchdowns to opponents but have also allowed more yards per game. In the playoffs, the Chiefs have allowed fewer touchdowns while playing one more game than the Niners who had the first week bye round. The Niners’ usual stellar defense appeared to have forgotten how to play correctly, giving up twenty-one first-half points to the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship game before turning it around. While forcing a fumble and getting multiple huge third and fourth down stops that helped propel themselves to the win.
The final aspect of the game is special teams. Both of these teams have excellent punters who rank near the top of the league. The main disparity between these teams is the kickers. The Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has been consistently on top of the league in the percentile of kicks made and can make them from anywhere. On the other side is rookie Jake Moody who’s been shaky all season long. Thus far in the postseason, he is ⅗ on his field goals but perfect on point after attempts. Overall, the Chiefs take the special teams advantage in this matchup.
It all comes down to which team plays better for the sixty-minute game length. The Chiefs and Niners have both had their rocky moments this season but have recovered and shown resilience to make it to the biggest stage in sports. After analyzing all the positional differences in the rosters and looking at the statistics of the season, I believe the Super Bowl 58 champions will be the San Francisco 49ers and Christian McCaffery will take home the Super Bowl MVP trophy.